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Avalanche Forecast

Mar 12th, 2019–Mar 13th, 2019
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Rockies.

Avalanche danger ratings assume 15 cm, possibly up to 20 cm of new snow tonight until Wednesday morning.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY NIGHT: Light snowfalls with accumulations between 5 to 15 cm but higher amounts (up to 25cm) are possible with upslope winds. Alpine temperature low -9C. Light northeast winds. WEDNESDAY: Flurries are possible with upslope wind. Mix of sun and cloud. Alpine temperature reaching -6C. Light east ridgetop winds.THURSDAY: Mainly cloudy. Dry. Alpine temperature high of -9C. Light west winds.FRIDAY: Mix of sun and cloud. Alpine temperatures reaching -4C with a freezing level of 1600m. Light west winds.

Avalanche Summary

Small and isolated (size 1-1.5) wind slab avalanches were naturally and human triggered Monday on steep alpine features. Storm and wind slabs are likely to be develop on exposed terrain at treeline and alpine.

Snowpack Summary

With up to 20 cm snow and wind in the forecast, storm and wind slabs are likely to develop. This new snow will bury hard wind slabs and wind pressed snow in alpine terrain. Last months cold temperatures have transformed most of the snowpack into weaker faceted snow with few if any distinct layers. In deep snowpack areas, it is possible to find a slab sitting above a layer of facets and surface hoar that was buried in mid-January and is 30-60 cm deep. The layer is most prominent in the Elk Valley between 1600 m and 1900 m, but no recent avalanche activity has been reported on this layer.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

With 15-20 cm of new snow and wind blowing from southwest switching to northeast, storm and wind slabs will likely develop.
Watch for whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.Minimize exposure to overhead hazards, especially during periods of loading from new snow or wind.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2