Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 26th, 2019 4:54PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

Avalanche Canada swerner, Avalanche Canada

Fresh and reactive wind slabs formed in response to yesterday's wind event. Southerly aspects will likely be more reactive to human triggers especially at treeline and above. Old, buried wind slabs still linger on on aspects and elevations.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Thursday

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud. Alpine temperatures near -8 and ridgetop winds light from the East.THURSDAY: Cloudy skies with new snow 5-10 cm. Treeline temperatures near -6 and ridgetop winds light from the South. FRIDAY: Cloudy with scattered flurries. Treeline temperatures near -8. Ridgetop winds light from the southwest with strong gusts.

Avalanche Summary

On Tuesday, explosive controlled wind slab avalanches were reported up to size 2.5 failing on southerly aspects 1900-2100 m. Isolated wind slabs up to size 1 remain reactive to human triggers.Last Sunday, a large (size 2.5) persistent slab was triggered by a skier in the Evening Ridge area. It occurred on a southeast aspect at about 2000 metres and featured a crown fracture around 50 cm deep and 350 metres wide. A weak layer from early February is suspected as the failure plane. Human triggered avalanches were reported everyday between February 12 and 20. Although most avalanches were small (size 1-1.5), some had impressive propagation on buried weak layers (see some examples here and here). Last Tuesday, a notable size 3 persistent slab avalanche occurred on an east aspect at 2000 m. This avalanche was triggered by explosives and failed on the persistent weak layer that was buried on February 7th.

Snowpack Summary

Fresh and reactive wind slabs have formed in exposed terrain in response to yesterday's wind event. This MIN report reflects the Kootenay Pass area well. The storm last weekend brought 15-25 cm of low density snow that now covers variable wind slabs at higher elevations and sun crusts on south-facing slopes. A weak layer of surface hoar (feathery crystals) and a crust that was buried on February 7th is now 30-50 cm deep. This layer has been reactive, and has produced avalanches as large as size 3. Two other surface hoar layers are buried 50 to 80 cm deep the snowpack (referred to as the February 1st and mid-January layers). Although they have not been reactive recently, they are still being monitored by professionals. The lower snowpack is considered generally strong.

Problems

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs
Northeast winds have formed fresh and reactive slabs in exposed terrain. Old, buried wind slabs also linger on a variety of aspects.
Use caution in freshly wind-loaded features, especially near ridge crests and in steep terrain.If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2.5

Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Persistent Slabs
It remains possible to trigger an avalanche on one of the surface hoar or crust layers buried 30 to 80 cm deep. These layers are most prominent around treeline elevations.
Use increased caution on open slopes and convex rolls at lower elevations.Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.Caution around sheltered open areas at treeline and below including cutblocks, gulleys, and glades.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1.5 - 2.5

Valid until: Feb 27th, 2019 2:00PM