Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the speed, direction, or duration of the wind and its effect on the snowpack. Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack.

A ridge of high pressure brings one more day of dry and sunny conditions for Sunday before conditions change on Monday. 

Saturday Night: Clear, moderate N wind, freezing levels around 1500 m.

Sunday: Sunny, light to moderate N wind, freezing levels climbing to around 2000 m.

Monday: Mainly cloudy with sunny breaks, light to moderate NW wind, freezing levels reaching around 1500 m in the afternoon.

Monday night and Tuesday: Snowfall up to 15 cm, light to moderate NW wind, freezing levels around 800 m.

On Friday, three size 1.5-2 persistent slab avalanches were human triggered and failed on a weak crust/facet layer buried late-February. This MIN report describes one of them which was on a west aspect at around 1950 m and released down 50 cm. Another was on an east aspect at around 1800 m elevation and the third was on a steep convex feature at treeline. Some human-triggered loose dry avalanches were observed on north aspects and some solar-triggered loose wet avalanches were observed on steep sun-exposed slopes. 

On Thursday, several persistent slab avalanches were reported up to size 2.5. Four of these were natural and the rest were human-triggered including one which was remotely triggered. Two of the naturals were on south aspects which were triggered by loose wet avalanches stepping down. Most of the rest of the activity was on northerly aspects. The majority of the activity appears to have occurred between 1600 and 2000 m elevation. Slab thickness was typically 30-70 cm and the failure plane was a combination of the mid-February and late-February weak layers which may be acting as more of a single thick weak layer. 

In addition to the persistent slab activity on Thursday, a natural wet slab was observed on a south aspect at 1750 m and several natural wind slabs were observed. Numerous loose avalanches were observed from steep sun-exposed slopes. Explosives triggered one size 3 cornice. 

A surface melt-freeze crust is now expected on all aspects below around 1700 m and on sun-exposed slopes into the alpine. Dry surface snow is expected on shaded aspects at treeline and in the alpine, and recent periods of moderate northerly wind may be redistributing this old storm snow and forming wind slabs in exposed high elevation terrain. 

A weak crust/facet layer which was buried late-February is typically down 30-60 cm and has been responsible for numerous avalanches over the past few days. The interface has been most reactive on shaded aspects between 1600 and 2000 m. There were also some avalanches on southerly aspects earlier in the week but with each subsequent day of melt-freeze conditions, the persistent problem is becoming less likely on sun-exposed slopes. 

Cornices have been reported to have grown large during the recent storm, primarily on north and east aspects. These may become weak during the heat of the afternoon. 

• Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of a persistent slab.
• Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
• Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
• Minimize exposure to sun-exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.