Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 9th, 2018 9:00AM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is low, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Cornices.

Jesse Percival, VIAC

Vancouver Island.

Summary

Confidence

High - well aligned forecast models

Travel & Terrain Advice

Expect surface conditions to become a very hard slippery surface crust. All mountain travellers should consider the option to travel on slopes that minimize exposure to slips and falls and terrain traps such as cliffs.

Avalanche Summary

No new natural or explosive triggered avalanches

Snowpack Summary

Continued cooling has begun to solidify the upper surface snow forming a hard well bonded upper snow pack. Mid and lower snow-pack are well settled.

Snowpack Details

Surface:
hard crust. Upper: moist and well settled. Mid: well settled. Lower: well settled.

Past Weather

A period of warm alpine temperatures and rain have been followed by clearing and cooling.

Weather Forecast

A strengthening arctic ridge of cold air to the east of the region will bring to the forecast area clearing sky, cooling temperatures and freezing level to seas level during the overnight period.Friday Clear, temps -3 to -6, winds light Nw, freezing level 900 m dropping to sea level overnight.Saturday Clear, temps -5 rising to +1, winds light Ne, freezing level 0 m rising to 900 m mid day.Sunday 5 mm of precipitation, temps - 8 to 0 , winds light to moderate Sw becoming Light Nw late in the afternoon, freezing level to 0 to 800 m.

Problems

Cornices

Cornices can be found on north aspects at both the treeline and the alpine. Cornices will continue to gain strength with forecast cold temperatures becoming stubborn to human triggering. If triggered these could produce an avalanche big enough to bury injure or kill a traveler. Take the time to identify these features and ensure appropriate travel techniques when either above or below these features.

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Feb 11th, 2018 9:00AM