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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 20th, 2017–Dec 21st, 2017
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Lizard-Flathead.

The recent storm snow will need some time to settle. Then the question will be how easy will it be to trigger the weak layer buried 30-50 cm below the surface.

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

Thursday: mostly dry during the day, light snow starting late afternoon. Moderate westerly winds. Treeline temperatures around -18C in the morning, warming to about -10C.Friday: Expect 2-5 cm on the ground in the morning from overnight flurries that may continue until noon. Winds becoming light northeasterly. Treeline temperatures around -14C.Saturday: Dry and sunny and cold. Temperatures around -20C or lower. Winds light northwesterly.

Avalanche Summary

A natural avalanche cycle up to size 2.5 was observed on Wednesday with avalanche depths typically 50 cm deep. Continued human-triggered avalanches are likely over the next few days.

Snowpack Summary

Around 50cm new snow now rests on a variety of old surfaces. These old surfaces include crusts on south through west facing slopes, wind-scoured slopes and, in sheltered terrain at and below treeline, large feathery surface hoar crystals. Lower in the snowpack, you should be able to find a hard crust that was buried near the end of November. This crust is approximately 30cm thick and extends from 1600m to mountain top on all aspects. Average snowpack depths at treeline in the region range from 100 to 140cm.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

There is a lot of recent storm snow sitting on a variable surface that will promote avalanche activity in many areas. The snow will need some time to settle.
The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3