Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 23rd, 2014 8:02AM

The alpine rating is high, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Persistent Slabs and Wind Slabs.

Avalanche Canada swerner, Avalanche Canada

Don't let the improving weather lure you into high risk scenarios. Check out the South Rockies Blog! Conditions are tricky and primed for human triggered avalanches.The hazard will increase the first day of full sun.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Weather Forecast

The high off the north coast will continue to push modified arctic air across the region. Some unstable disturbances are embedded in this flow, bringing scattered cloud along the southern boundary of the region on Monday. Most other locations further north will see full sun. Monday: Mix of sun and cloud. Alpine temperatures near -11.0. Ridgetop winds light from the north.Tuesday: Sunny. Alpine temperatures near -9.0. Ridgetop winds light from the northeast.Wednesday: Cloudy with sunny periods. Alpine  temperatures -2.0. Ridgetop winds light from the west. Freezing levels rising to 1600 m.

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday, we received a report of a snowmobile triggered a size 3 slab avalanche in the Coal Creek area (Notch). It sounds like 7 sledders were involved and all self rescued. The avalanche was on a North aspect and the crown was 1-2 m deep. On Friday, the SR field team witnessed several large snowmobile remote triggered slab avalanches in the Elk Valley North. These avalanches were all triggered below treeline around 1800 m. On Thursday, a natural size 2.5 avalanche occurred near the Coal Creek road. The debris just reached the road, didn't block it but the air blast covered the road with branches. Wind loading and sunshine are forecast, which means natural avalanche activity will likely increase, especially on southerly aspects.Check out the South Rockies Blog to view photos of the remote triggered avalanches that were witnessed on Friday. It displays how sensitive and reactive the persistent weak layer continues to be. Finding safe areas to ride, and choosing the most appropriate terrain is very tricky given the current conditions.

Snowpack Summary

Large cornices loom over slopes and wind slabs are building on leeward aspects. The recent storm snow is up to a metre thick and remains touchy. This slab continues to settle and become more cohesive, overlying a complex medley of persistent weak layers (mainly facets and some surface hoar). The weak layers are widespread on all aspects and at all elevations across the region. This is the classic firm slab over weak layer that allows for wide propagations and remote triggering. This problem may persist for days or even weeks. The mid-pack is strong and supportive. A deep persistent layer of facets and depth hoar near the base of the snowpack has remained dormant to this point, but may become a concern with additional load and stress on the snowpack.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Persistent Slabs
The persistent weak layer continues to be very sensitive to any additional load. Remote triggering from adjacent terrain and very long fracture propagations are a major concern on all aspects and elevations.
Use conservative route selection, resist venturing out into complex terrain even if you observe no obvious signs of unstable snow.>Avoid areas with overhead hazard, especially on southerly slopes.>Remote triggering is a concern, watch out for adjacent slopes.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

3 - 6

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs
Wind has transported snow and built fresh, touchy wind slabs on the leeward side of terrain features. Be aware of weak cornices looming over slopes. If they fail, it could trigger large slab avalanche on the slope below.
Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 4

Valid until: Feb 24th, 2014 2:00PM

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