Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 4th, 2017 4:33PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

mgrist, Avalanche Canada

South Rockies.

Cold weather continues! Please submit your observations to the MIN.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

The arctic outbreak continues with cold temperatures and no snow until Sunday at the earliest.THURSDAY: A mix of sun and cloud. Wind light southwest 15-30 Km/h. Temperatures between -14and -24 Celcius. No precipitation.FRIDAY: Sunny with cloudy periods. Wind becoming southwesterly 15-25 Km/h. Temperatures between -14 and -24 Celcius. No precipitation.SATURDAY: Increasing clouds late in the day with a chance of flurries. Winds light southerly 5-10 Km/h. Temperatures between -12 and -24 Celcius.

Avalanche Summary

No new observed.

Snowpack Summary

The recent storm snow has been transported by northeast winds into wind slabs on south and west aspects. In some areas these wind slabs may be sitting on an old scoured surface that was stripped by previous strong westerly winds that developed wind slabs on north and east aspects. The newer wind slabs are probably easier to trigger, but the old wind slabs may continue to release with the added load of a rider, especially where they are sitting on a shallow weak sugary base. The mid snowpack is generally right side up, with the mid-December interface down 40-80cms, giving inconsistent results in snowpack tests. There is some faceting below this interface but resistances are good and showing signs of rounding (stabilizing). Travel conditions have been challenging and little change is expected until the next warm up helps to settle the snowpack.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Recent strong winds have been from several directions, creating wind slabs and reverse loading. Expect these wind slabs to continue to be easy to trigger, and may take longer than usual to settle and bond due to the cold temperatures

If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.Avoid travelling in areas that have been reverse loaded by winds.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

Where denser snow overlies weak, sugary snow, there is the potential to trigger large, dangerous avalanches. Dig down and test for weak layers before committing to any steep slope.

Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.Danger spots are where denser snow overlies weak, sugary snow below.Watch for whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

2 - 3

Valid until: Jan 5th, 2017 2:00PM