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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Apr 14th, 2017–Apr 15th, 2017
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Lizard-Flathead.

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Confidence

Low - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

SATURDAY: Cloudy with sunny periods / Light to moderate west wind / Alpine temperature -1 / Freezing level 1500mSUNDAY: Mix of sun and cloud / Light south wind / Alpine temperature 1 / Freezing level 1700mSUNDAY: Mix of sun and cloud / Light southeast wind / Alpine temperature 6 / Freezing level 2300m

Avalanche Summary

Reports on Thursday indicate numerous skier controlled and natural loose wet avalanches to size 1.5 on all aspects up to 2000m. Additionally a few explosive controlled moist storm slab avalanches were reported to size 2, 20-30cm deep on north and east aspects above 2000m. Exposure to large overhanging cornices remains a significant concern. As the sun comes out over the weekend I would expect see cornices weaken and loose snow avalanches run from steep sun exposed slopes during the warmest parts of the day.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 20cm of moist new snow fell at upper elevations Wednesday night. Thursday during the day the precipitation fell as rain up to 2000m making the snow surface moist or wet. Subsequent overnight cooling has created thin surface crusts up to 2100m. All this adds to moist new snow from the previous weekend and sits on a well developed crust layer that formed up to 1400m on all aspects except south where it formed up to 1700m. The snowpack is generally well settled and continues to transition into a spring melt/freeze regime. Below 1300m the snowpack may be moist or wet through its entire thickness. In the alpine cornices continue to grow large and ever more overhanging.

Avalanche Problems

Cornices

Cornices are most likely to trigger during periods of intense sunshine and/or the warmest parts of the day.
Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.Cornices become weak with daytime heating.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Wind Slabs

Recent new snow and southerly winds have created fresh wind slabs in alpine lee terrain.
Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2