Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 5th, 2015–Feb 6th, 2015

Alpine

4: High

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high

Treeline

4: High

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Sea To Sky.

At this point in the storm the serious problem exists where the precipitation is falling as snow.

Confidence

Fair - Freezing levels are uncertain

Weather Forecast

The forecast period features a sustained freezing level around 2000m, strong to extreme SW winds and significant precipitation. 25 to 40mm are expected Thursday night, 20 to 30mm Friday and another 15 to 20mm Saturday. Visit avalanche.ca/weather for a comprehensive look at this dynamic weather pattern.

Avalanche Summary

No significant avalanche activity to report form Wednesday. I suspect that there should be plenty to report from Thursday.

Snowpack Summary

The storm initially produced 5 - 15 cm of new snow before switching to rain mid morning. Temperatures had warmed to 0 C at 2200m by early afternoon. This snow/rain combo is likely saturating the 10 to 30cm of new snow that overlies a hard rain crust which exists up to at least 2100m. Strong west/southwest winds are likely shifting the remaining cold snow at upper elevations into wind slabs. Deeper snowpack weaknesses have become unreactive on account of the strong capping crust layer. We'll be watching the strength/temperature of this capping layer closely through the weekend.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Natural avalanches likely remain an issue above 2000m. This activity may creep down to treeline with a drop in temps. You may see the odd loose wet avalanche below treeline, but I suspect the low elevation snowpack will just soak up the rain.

Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.>Be aware of the potential for the odd loose wet avalanche below treeline.>Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, avalanches running on the thick crust may run further than you think.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 5