Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Apr 22nd, 2014 9:05AM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Wind Slabs, Loose Wet and Cornices.

rbuhler, Avalanche Canada

Sea To Sky.

Avalanche danger can rise quickly with afternoon warming and solar radiation. Be aware of changing conditions and overhead hazards.For more insight into spring danger ratings, check out this blog post.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Unsettled conditions are expected for Wednesday before an organized system reaches the south coast on Thursday morning. This system should result in light precipitation until Friday morning. Friday is expected to be unsettled.Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud, scattered precipitation 1-3mm, freezing level am: 1000m pm: 1500m, ridgetop wind: light SWThursday: Precipitation 5-10mm, freezing level am: 1100m pm: 1600m, ridgetop wind: light S-SWFriday: Cloudy with sunny breaks, scattered precipitation 0-2mm, freezing level am: 1200m pm: 1600m, ridgetop wind: light SE-SW

Avalanche Summary

On Monday, soft slab avalanches up to size 1.5 were reported.Â These slabs are typically 10-15cm thick.Â Natural cornices releases were also reported.On Sunday, explosive control and ski cuts resulted in soft slab avalanches up to size 1.5 from leeward features in the alpine.

Snowpack Summary

A highly variable spring snowpack exists across the region and conditions can change rapidly throughout the day. At lower elevations below-treeline, the snowpack is isothermal and melting rapidly. At mid elevations, between roughly 1500 and 2000m (and higher on sunny slopes), the snowpack is undergoing daily melt-freeze cycles. In the mornings, a refrozen surface generally means good stability. In the afternoon when the surface melts, the stability can deteriorate quickly, especially on sunny slopes. The recent storm has produced dry snow in the alpine resulting in the formation of storm slabs and wind slabs which sit on an old crust. The stability of these slabs has generally been improving but on the first really sunny day, stability is expected to deteriorate rapidly and natural avalanche activity is likely, especially on sunny slopes. Large cornices remain a concern and are expected to become reactive during periods of solar warming. The early-Feb facet/crust layer (down ~2m) and a weak basal layer are both dormant but remain a concern during periods of intense warming, especially in thinner snowpack areas, when large spring avalanches may step down to these layers.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind slabs from the weekend storm may still be sensitive to human-triggering. These formed in leeward alpine features from strong S-SW winds.

Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Use caution in lee areas in the alpine. Recent wind loading have created wind slabs.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Loose Wet

Loose wet activity can be expected from steep features during periods of solar warming or rain. Isolated wet slabs may be possible under the same conditions where the recent storm snow is poorly bonded to the underlying crust.

Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.>Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Cornices

Large cornices may become reactive during periods of sun and warming. Cornice falls have the potential to trigger deep instabilities which could result in large, destructive avalanches.

Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.>Cornices become weak with daytime heating, so travel early on exposed slopes.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1 - 4

Valid until: Apr 23rd, 2014 2:00PM