Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Feb 27th, 2020 5:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Persistent Slabs.
astclair,
Avalanche Canada
Warming temperatures may exacerbate the strong over weak snow combination in the upper snowpack tomorrow. A conservative terrain use strategy is warranted to manage the uncertainty.
Summary
Confidence
Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how the snowpack will react to the forecast weather.
Weather Forecast
Thursday night: Partly cloudy, moderate southwest winds, freezing level 1500 m.
Friday: Mix of sun and cloud, moderate southwest winds increasing to strong by end of day, freezing level 2000 m.
Saturday: Mix of sun and cloud, up to 5 cm new snow, moderate southwest winds, freezing level 1400 m.
Sunday: Partly cloudy, light variable winds, freezing level 1400 m.
Avalanche Summary
Small wet loose activity was reported on steep, sunny slopes on Thursday. In a few cases, these initiated small slabs on the February 22 surface hoar. A large, natural avalanche on an east aspect at 2100 m was thought to have run on the February 22 surface hoar and stepped down to the February 13 surface hoar layer.
Since the weekend storm, numerous small (size 1-1.5) skier triggered avalanches have been reported on a variety of aspects above 1700 m. Avalanches attributed to the late February surface hoar layer have occurred primarily between 1900-2100 m.Â
Snowpack Summary
20-35 cm cm of recent snow is settling over a layer of near surface facets or surface hoar in sheltered areas at all elevations. Warming temperatures and sun are speeding up settlement in the slab and promoting touchy conditions on this interface. In the alpine and exposed treeline, recent snow has been redistributed by strong west winds, loading deeper and more reactive deposits onto lee features.Â
An older layer of surface hoar from mid-February now sits 50-80 cm deep. This weak layer produced significant avalanche activity focused in the east of the region prior to the last storm. While it is likely bonding over time, there is uncertainty around remnant reactivity. Shallower avalanches may have the potential to step-down to this layer. The remainder of the snowpack is well settled.
Terrain and Travel
- Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.
- Stick to simple terrain or small features with limited consequence.
- Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.
Problems
Persistent Slabs
Warming temperatures and periods of sun are expected to promote cohesion in the recent snow over a lingering layer of buried surface hoar, making human-triggered avalanches likely. This problem will be more pronounced where the wind has drifted the recent snow near tree line. Although less likely, a melt freeze crust buried down 60-80 cm may also become more reactive as a persistent weak layer with warming temperatures.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Feb 28th, 2020 4:00PM
