Avalog Join
Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Nov 27th, 2016–Nov 28th, 2016
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Sea To Sky.

The region has just received well over a metre of snow, and destructive avalanches are still a real possibility. Give the snowpack time to gain strength before pushing into steep terrain.

Confidence

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

Sunday evening: 8-15cm of new snow / Moderate southwest winds / Freezing level at 900m. Monday: Mix of sun and cloud / Light northwest winds / Freezing level at 900m. Tuesday: Mix of sun and cloud / Light southwest winds / Freezing level at 1000m.  Wednesday: 5-15cm of new snow / Light to moderate south winds / Freezing level at 1100m.

Avalanche Summary

In recent days, widespread storm slab avalanche activity was triggered naturally or with explosives. Most of the avalanches observed were in the size 2 range; however, a few size 3 and 3.5 avalanches were observed running in large, lee alpine features. With ongoing snow and wind on Sunday afternoon, I'd be on the look-out for continued storm slab activity, especially in higher elevation lee terrain.

Snowpack Summary

Snow depths have increased rapidly over the past week bringing treeline snow depths to about 200 cm. Much of this recent storm snow has settled and gained significant strength. That said, ongoing wind and snowfall have created large and reactive storm slabs which appear to be especially touchy in higher, wind-exposed terrain. Stormy weather also also encouraged significant cornice growth, and new cornices are reported to be unseasonably large and fragile. Over a metre below the surface you'll find the thick mid-November crust. The reports we've received suggest a reasonable bond at this interface; however, I'd remain suspicious of this layer until the snowpack adjusts to the weight of all of the new snow. This may take a few more days. Below the crust, the snowpack is strong and well-settled.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Even if the storm tapers-off on Monday, storm slabs may remain touchy, especially on higher elevation, wind-exposed features. I'd give the snowpack time to settle and gain strength before pushing into steeper terrain.
Stay off recent wind loaded areas until the slope has had a chance to stabilize.Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.Be alert to conditions that change with elevation.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Cornices

Recent strong winds and heavy snowfall have been the perfect combo for large cornice development. To avoid a nasty ride, give fresh cornices a wide berth while traveling on ridgetops.
Stay well to the windward side of corniced ridges.Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2