Avalanche Forecast

Low - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

We're in an active weather pattern with lots of uncertainty with regard to freezing levels and snow / rain amounts. WEDNESDAY: Snow (20-30cm possible in some locations) mixed with rain throughout the day. Winds moderate to strong (35-70 Km/hr) from the south. Freezing level 2000m and alpine temperatures around 0 Celsius. THURSDAY: Snow (5-15 cm) ending in the afternoon. Winds easing to moderate from the southwest. Freezing level 1300m and alpine high temperatures to -1 Celsius. FRIDAY: Scattered flurries with up to 5cm snow possible. Winds light from the west. Freezing level 1200 metres with alpine temperatures to -4 Celsius.

Limited observations with the inclement weather, but no new reported.

The simplified take on the snowpack: We have rapid loading of suspect layers which will cause avalanches. It's best to avoid avalanche terrain during this time and let the storm (and avalanche) cycle run its course and check back in on Thursday afternoon.The detailed take on the snowpack: On Monday into Tuesday we had rain up to 2200m near Whistler (and 8cm snow).  Other zones like the upper Callaghan got 35cm snow! The rain (or snow high in the alpine) started to saturate and load a wide variety of surface conditions. Simply put, the upper snowpack is extremely variable: Last week we had very touchy wind slabs (5-40 cm thick) forming on southerly slopes near ridge crests and roll-overs. These slabs were the primary weakness of concern in the snowpack, giving easy sudden planar results in snowpack tests. Deeper in the snowpack, older snow is bonding fairly well to a variable surface consisting of a mix of soft wind slabs, hard wind slabs, sastrugi, faceted snow, and even some surface hoar. Snowpack layers below this interface are generally well bonded, and the lower snowpack is solid.