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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Nov 21st, 2015–Nov 22nd, 2015
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Jasper.

Excellent skiing and supportive touring in sheltered areas. Early season hazards are cleverly hidden under all the snow. Ski and ride cautiously.

Weather Forecast

Expect seasonal temperatures next few days with a slight daytime warming trend continuing Sunday. Consistent moderate westerly winds continue through Sunday making it unpleasant to tour in the open. Monday afternoon forecast still calling for 10-15 cm of storm snow. Be observant of the impacts of previous wind and the resulting stiffening slab.

Snowpack Summary

Field observations in the Parkers area found snow depths vary between 10 to 140 cm. Extensive wind effect at TL and above giving supportive touring but limited ski quality out in the open. Where significant loading has occurred the snow remains stubborn and does not want to propagate. This was the case on a heavily cross-loaded open west aspect.

Avalanche Summary

One possible unobserved skier remote, sz 1.5 seen today on a regular performing slope in the Hilda-Destiny ridge area. A BTL steep rock slab feature in a cross-loaded gully. Forecasters are treating it as a anomalous event as no further evidence in the surrounding area supports that snowpack character but, still a high consequence event.

Confidence

Due to the quality of field observations

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Consistent strong to moderate winds have been forming wind slabs on cross-loaded and lee aspect slopes. With little left to transport, existing slabs will stiffen; facetting will weaken the base of support and they may become more easily triggered.
Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.Early season hazards such as rocks, trees and stumps are still visible.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West, West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Loose Dry

50-70 cm of unconsolidated snow is sitting on steep terrain. Expect point releases from cliffs and steep smooth surfaces. Wind, sun and other triggers could release this snow and be enough mass to bury a person or push an ice climber off.
Be very cautious with gully features.Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2