Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Nov 21st, 2015 4:00PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Loose Dry.

deryl kelly, Parks Canada

Jasper.

Excellent skiing and supportive touring in sheltered areas. Early season hazards are cleverly hidden under all the snow. Ski and ride cautiously.

Summary

Weather Forecast

Expect seasonal temperatures next few days with a slight daytime warming trend continuing Sunday. Consistent moderate westerly winds continue through Sunday making it unpleasant to tour in the open. Monday afternoon forecast still calling for 10-15 cm of storm snow. Be observant of the impacts of previous wind and the resulting stiffening slab.

Snowpack Summary

Field observations in the Parkers area found snow depths vary between 10 to 140 cm. Extensive wind effect at TL and above giving supportive touring but limited ski quality out in the open. Where significant loading has occurred the snow remains stubborn and does not want to propagate. This was the case on a heavily cross-loaded open west aspect.

Avalanche Summary

One possible unobserved skier remote, sz 1.5 seen today on a regular performing slope in the Hilda-Destiny ridge area. A BTL steep rock slab feature in a cross-loaded gully. Forecasters are treating it as a anomalous event as no further evidence in the surrounding area supports that snowpack character but, still a high consequence event.

Confidence

Due to the quality of field observations

Problems

Wind Slabs

Consistent strong to moderate winds have been forming wind slabs on cross-loaded and lee aspect slopes. With little left to transport, existing slabs will stiffen; facetting will weaken the base of support and they may become more easily triggered.

Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.Early season hazards such as rocks, trees and stumps are still visible.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West, West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Loose Dry

50-70 cm of unconsolidated snow is sitting on steep terrain. Expect point releases from cliffs and steep smooth surfaces. Wind, sun and other triggers could release this snow and be enough mass to bury a person or push an ice climber off.

Be very cautious with gully features.Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Nov 22nd, 2015 4:00PM