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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 28th, 2015–Jan 29th, 2015
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Jasper.

The avalanche cycle has tapered off but alpine conditions have not changed significantly.  A melt freeze crust has stabilized conditions below treeline. 

Weather Forecast

Mild and dry conditions will continue on Friday.  Around 10 cm of snow will start falling on Friday night with light west winds through Saturday.  Cold air moves into the area on Saturday night bringing clear crisp temperatures on Sunday.

Snowpack Summary

There is a melt freeze crust at treeline to valley bottom.  The crust weakens into treeline.  In the alpine, heavier snow sits over a persistent weak layer dating to Dec 20th.

Avalanche Summary

The avalanche activity has slowed with the cooler temperatures.  Several slab avalanches to size 2.5 from the past 24 hrs  were observed on easterly aspects around 2400 m.  Previous loose wet avalanches were numerous on lower elevation westerly aspects and pin wheeling was observed up to 2300 m.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Saturday

Avalanche Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

This weakness is sitting at or close to the ground. Numerous large avalanche failing on this layer during Wednesday's avalanche control.
Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

Forecasters have had easy test results on this layer today.  The tricky thing about this layer is that it is not widespread but can be found in sheltered areas.
Choose well supported terrain without convexities.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3