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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Apr 14th, 2017–Apr 15th, 2017
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Jasper.

Plan your day to avoid slopes with overhead hazards such as cornices and/or windslabs.  The new snow and wind in the forecast will make these more sensitive and large loads can trigger the deep persistent slab that is widespread in the forecast area.

Weather Forecast

15 cm of snow expected by Saturday evening with moderate SW winds. Freezing level peaking at 1700 m on Saturday.  Sun and warming temperatures coming on Sunday.

Snowpack Summary

New windslab on open slopes above 2400m. Dryer surface snow on polar aspects over a solid mid-pack bridging the weak base above 2000m. The base is a combination of weak facets and depth hoar mixed around a Nov rain crust. A consistent melt-freeze cycle is occurring below tree line.

Avalanche Summary

Several large windslab avalanches around 2400 m on x-loaded gulley features and steep lee slopes observed south of  Icefields on Friday.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Saturday

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

15 cm of new snow with moderate SW winds will create reactive alpine windslab on lee slopes.  If triggered, these could step down to the deep persistent slab resulting in very large avalanches.
Minimize overhead exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Deep Persistent Slabs

The deep instability could be triggered by large loads such as a cornice failure or a surface avalanche. Human triggering is most likely from shallow spots or on steep unsupported slopes.
Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could easily trigger the deep persistent slab.Be cautious in shallow snowpack areas where triggering is more likely.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 4

Cornices

New snow and wind will increase the likelihood of cornice failure.
Avoid travel on slopes that are exposed to cornices overhead.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3