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Avalanche Forecast

Apr 6th, 2019–Apr 7th, 2019
Alpine
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be low
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be low
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Lizard-Flathead.

A trace of snow may fall Saturday night into Sunday, but that is expected to have little impact on avalanche hazard. Continue to minimize exposure to steep slopes as temperatures warm through the day, especially in areas with fresh snow.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Tuesday

Weather Forecast

The weather models are having a pretty tough time getting a handle on the current pattern, but it doesn't look like much snow is going to make it to the Lizard until Tuesday. Still, take the wind and precipitation values with a grain of salt.SATURDAY NIGHT: Freezing level around 1500 m, strong southwest wind, trace of snow possible.SUNDAY: Broken cloud cover, freezing level rising to 2000 m, moderate to strong southwest wind, trace of snow possible at upper elevations.MONDAY: Scattered clouds in the morning building to overcast in the afternoon, freezing level around 2000 m, light variable wind, trace of snow possible at upper elevations.TUESDAY: Overcast, freezing level around 1800 m, light to moderate west/southwest wind, 5 to 15 cm of snow possible at upper elevations.

Avalanche Summary

Loose wet avalanches to size 1 were reported from steep alpine features on Thursday. No significant avalanche activity to report from Friday.

Snowpack Summary

Wet flurries and rain have sprinkled a spring snowpack and it looks like that trend will continue into the weekend, but there is still some reasonably good riding to be found. During the heat of the day, especially under direct sun, the snow surface becomes moist or wet almost everywhere. The exception being high elevation north facing features. With spring conditions, the avalanche hazard will fluctuate greatly depending on the strength of the overnight re-freeze and how quickly the snowpack is warmed up.Steep, north facing, alpine terrain may still hold a cold, dry, snowpack where a well settled slab rests on weak facets (sugary snow). Although unlikely, human triggering of persistent slabs on this layer may still be possible, especially in rocky alpine terrain with a shallow or highly variable depth snowpack.Below treeline the snowpack is becoming isothermal.

Avalanche Problems

Loose Wet

The likelihood of loose avalanches increases as temperatures warm through the day and/or if the sun comes out for a prolonged period of time. Loose wet avalanches are more likely in areas with fresh snow.
Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.A moist/wet snow surface, pinwheeling and natural avalanches all indicate a weakening snowpack.Loose avalanches may start small but they can grow and push you into dangerous terrain.

Aspects: East, South East, South, South West, West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 1.5