Avalanche Forecast
Regions: East Island, North Island, South Island, Vancouver Island, West Island.
The sun at this time of year can pack a punch so watch for signs of warming in recent snow on steep south aspects. Around Mt Cain, avalanches may remain triggerable on a recently buried crust.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanche observations in the past 2 days.
On Tuesday our field team observed several size 1-2 wind slab avalanches at Mt Cain which they estimated to be around 1-2 days old. Some of them failed down to a buried crust.
Explosive control work produced size 1-2 storm/wind slab avalanches on Monday and Tuesday in the Mt Washington area.
Snowpack Summary
30-60 cm of recent snow has been redistributed at upper elevations. At lower elevations, it continues to settle amid mild temperatures. A sun crust or moist snow may exist on steep solar aspects.
A thick, widespread crust formed in mid February now sits 40-80 cm deep. Near Mt Cain, the crust is glassy with faceted crystals sitting on top of it, which makes for a poor bond to the overlying slab of snow. For more details, check out this reel from our field team last week. Elsewhere the crust seems to be bonding well. You can check the bond in your local area by performing a simple hand shear test on an isolated block.
The mid and lower snowpack is well consolidated, containing a series of well-bonded crusts.
Weather Summary
Thursday night
Clear. Wind easing to light northeast. Alpine low -5 ËšC.
Friday
Mostly sunny. Light westerly wind. Alpine high of 0 ËšC.
Saturday
Snowfall starting, around 5 cm. Moderate southwesterly wind. Alpine high -1 ËšC.
Sunday
15-30 cm of new snow. Strong southwesterly wind. Alpine high -1 ËšC.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Wind slabs may be poorly bonded to the underlying crust.
- Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet
- A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.
Avalanche Problems
Loose Wet
The more the snow surface heats up, the more likely loose wet avalanches become in steep south facing terrain features.
Aspects: South East, South, South West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1.5
Persistent Slabs
We have only found this problem around Mt Cain, where a smooth crust buried 40-80 cm deep is poorly bonded to overlying snow. Avalanches ran on this layer last weekend but we have uncertainty around the reactivity of it currently. Our field team is visiting Mt Cain Friday to assess the crust situation so if you're planning on recreating there this weekend, stay tuned for updates!
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2