Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Tuesday

Overview: A ridge of high pressure will bring dry conditions to the region on Tuesday. A frontal system will bring moderate snowfall on Wednesday before the dry ridge rebuilds on Thursday.Tuesday: Generally clear skies / Light to moderate northwest winds / Freezing level at 1500mWednesday: 15-25cm of snow / Moderate to strong southwest winds / Freezing level at 1400mThursday: Mix of sun and cloud with light flurries / Moderate northwest winds / Freezing level at 700m

Although observations were extremely limited, several natural size 1-1.5 loose wet avalanches were observed on Sunday. They occurred in response to steady rain at lower elevations. Looking forward, solar radiation may be the driver for natural avalanche activity on Tuesday.

Variable amounts of recent storm snow was blown by strong winds into much deeper deposits in lee terrain. These recent accumulations overlie crusts on previously sun-exposed slopes and surface hoar in shaded terrain. Rain at lower elevations continued to saturate the snowpack. If the air temperature dips below freezing, lower elevation surfaces may exist as a refrozen crust.Below the new snow, 60-100cm of settled snow has been bonding poorly to buried surface hoar and crusts. The deeper facet/crust persistent weakness buried at the beginning of February, now down 60 to 160cm, has been highly variable in terms of reactivity and is still very difficult to trust. Needless to say, any avalanche at these deeper, persistent interfaces would be large and destructive.Weak basal facets exist in many areas, but without a large load, triggering now is unlikely.