Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Due to variable snopack conditionsfor the entire period

Wednesday: Increasing cloud throughout the day with light snowfall and moderate westerly winds starting in the evening. Thursday: Snow and wind tapering off throughout the day with 5-10cm total storm snow expected by the evening. Friday: Mainly dry with light to moderate northerly winds. Freezing levels are expected to remain near valley bottoms for the forecast period.

There have been no new reports of avalanches. I suspect the low density surface snow will sluff readily with human triggers on steep slopes. Fresh soft wind slabs are expected to form and become an avalanche problem.

Large surface hoar and faceted powder on sheltered shady slopes, and a surface crust on sun-exposed slopes, is now lightly buried in some locations and should continue to get incrementally buried over the forecast period. Assuming the structure of this current snow surface is preserved long enough for a sufficiently thick and cohesive slab to bury it, then a highly unstable situation should develop. Particularly where surface hoar and/or faceted crystals are associated with a weak crust. Generally speaking the longer surface snow is exposed to the elements before it gets burred, the more likely it is to become a serious problem given favorable conditions for slab development. The mid and lower snowpack are generally well settled and strong, but faceting. Recent easy test results on basal facets and depth hoar necessitates caution on wind-exposed slopes with highly variable snowpack depths, where this deep persistent weakness could be triggered from a shallow spot. Check out the Forecaster's Blog link below for more general snowpack discussion and good advice.