Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 3rd, 2015 8:38AM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Deep Persistent Slabs.

ghelgeson, Avalanche Canada

South Rockies.

A big change in the weather is in store beginning Thursday. Check out the vlog our field team put together a few days back: http://www.avalanche.ca/blogs

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

The weather pattern is currently super dynamic and tough to pin down with exact metrics, especially on Friday. No precipitation is expected on Wednesday, but winds should begin to ramp up to moderate SW at treeline, Strong W in the alpine. Thursday looks very similar with the potential for a trace amount of snow. Friday should bring 2-15mm of precipitation which will likely start as snow, switching to rain as the freezing level begins to climb towards 2500m. Check back for more updates tomorrow.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported.

Snowpack Summary

Recent sunny weather and high freezing levels have decimated the lower elevation snowpack. As a result the threshold for avalanches in most of the region has risen to approximately 1600m, potentially higher on solar aspects. 4-10cm of new snow has covered up a melt freeze crust and/or surface hoar, or a combo of both. The melt freeze crust exists up to approximately 1900m and up to all elevations on solar aspects. The mid-December crust/facet/surface hoar layer is down 40-85cm and is suspected to be reactive in isolated areas, especially where a slab of stiffer snow has consolidated above it.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Moderate to strong SW winds will likely find whatever soft snow there is and reform it into thin wind slabs in wind exposed terrain. Should be easily managed by staying out of the wind.

Exercise caution as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Watch for wind loaded pockets at and above treeline.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Deep Persistent Slabs

The likelihood of triggering this layer is higher on shallow rocky features above treeline.

Avoid thin rocky slopes where you may be able to trigger avalanches that initiate on deeply buried instabilities.>Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

2 - 4

Valid until: Feb 4th, 2015 2:00PM