High freezing levels and continued rain will keep the avalanche danger elevated. The weather forecast is a tricky mix of changing freezing levels and uncertain precipitation amounts.
Summary
Confidence
Moderate - Freezing levels are uncertain on Thursday
Weather Forecast
Overnight: Freezing level at 2000 metres, slowly dropping by morning to 1200 metres. Expect 15-20 mm of precipitation that will be mostly rain, except at the highest elevations. Thursday: Daytime freezing level around 1500 metres, 5-10 cm of new snow above 1500 metres, moderate southwest winds. Friday: Overnight freezing down to valley bottoms, and then rising back up above 2000 metres. Mostly sunny with valley fog in the morning, and light southwest winds. Saturday: Freezing level remaining above 2000 metres, strong southwest winds, and 5-10 mm of precipitation.
Avalanche Summary
Widespread natural avalanches were reported up to size 3.0. Most of these were reported to be loose wet avalanches gouging and entraining mass as they travelled down the path. This avalanche cycle is likely to continue overnight,
Snowpack Summary
Heavy rain to mountain tops has soaked the upper snowpack and caused rapid settlement of the recent storm snow. The surface has been reported to be wet to at least 1800 metres, and moist to 2000 metres or higher. The forecast brief drop in freezing levels in the early morning may not have much effect on the snowpack when the daytime warmth brings the freezing level back up. Isolated basal facets still exist in shallow snowpack areas and can produce destructive full-depth avalanches. Possible triggers for these deeper weak layers include cornice falls, rapid warming, or strong solar radiation.
triley,
Avalanche Canada
