Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Tonight and Wednesday: Moderate precipitation is expected tonight and tomorrow. Around 20 cm is forecasted and freezing levels rising to 1200 m in the afternoon. Winds are forecasted to be extreme from the southwest and then switching from the west. Thursday: Light to moderate amounts of precipitation are forecasted, in the 15 cm range with moderate to strong westerly winds. Freezing levels are expected to fall to the surface before rising up again to 1200 m in the afternoon. Friday: More unsettled weather as the zonal flow persist. Expect similar precipitation amounts, winds and freezing levels.

Multiple natural avalanches up to size 2 were reported today on various aspects mostly out of the alpine.

Around 20 cm of snow should fall tonight and tomorrow, adding to the 15-20 cm already fallen. Forecasted extreme winds from the southwest and then from the west overloading lee slopes would likely result in large avalanches in the alpine and at treeline. Rising temperatures during the day is also expected to weaken the snow on all aspects, at all elevations. The new snow fell on a variety of weak layers such as surface facets, on a new surface hoar layer in sheltered areas, on a suncrust or on 10-40 cm thick hard windslabs in the alpine. The bond of the new snow with these surfaces is poor. Indeed, today's avalanche activity is a good signs of the unstable snowpack conditions. With more load, expect avalanche size and occurrences to increase. At treeline, ~50 cm below the surface exist another surface hoar or suncrust layer that was buried late in January which could wake up with the loading. The mid snowpack is strong and supportive. Deeper persistent layers have been dormant, however they could also become active again with heavy load such as a cornice drop or large slab avalanche.