Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain on Sunday

For better or worse, weather models are far from perfect. They have a particularly tough time with situations like the one we're in now. The models call for rapidly changing freezing levels, strong to extreme winds out of the SW and uncertain precip amounts. My best guess for the So. Rockies is 10 cm of snow. The caveat is that there could be some upslope action Sunday as the storm exists to the east. Time will tell. Freezing levels will spike Sunday and may rise as high as 1800m. Cooling will build in Monday and then Tuesday looks to be fairly dry. This is all fine & good, but I must admit that my confidence in any model is quite low for the short term, so, take this weather forecast with a grain of salt and be ready for rapidly changing conditions.

Our field team was out in the region Thursday investigating a slide that ran full path. This avalanche path has a SE facing start zone that had been crossloaded by the recent westerly winds. A wind pillow failed high on the slope triggering a size 3 avalanche with a crown as deep as 85 cm. The likely culprit is a crust/facet combo from mid-December. Very little avalanche activity was reported or observed on Saturday

Last week 40-60cm of snow formed soft slabs over a crust/facet/surface hoar combo which has settled remarkably quickly.Deeper in the snowpack, a surface hoar layer buried in early December remains a concern, as avalanches triggered on this layer would be destructive. There may have been releases on this layer post storm but at this time nothing has been reported. It should be noted that basal facets exist in many parts of the region too. Facets sandwiched between two firm layers in the top metre of the snowpack are being monitored in the south-east.