The best and safest riding will be in north-facing terrain that is free from cornices overhead. Plan your day around avoiding sun-exposed slopes.
Summary
Confidence
Moderate - Uncertainty is due to rapidly fluctuating freezing levels.
Weather Forecast
Warm sunny weather continues until a weak frontal system arrives on Thursday.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear skies, light north wind, freezing level drops to 1000 m with treeline temperatures dropping to -5 C.
MONDAY: Sunny, light northwest wind, freezing level climbing to 2300 m with treeline temperatures reaching +2 C.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny with some clouds in the afternoon, light northwest wind, freezing level climbs to 2200 m with treeline temperatures reaching +2 C.
THURSDAY: Cloudy with scattered flurries bringing up to 5 cm of snow, moderate northeast wind, freezing level around 1400 m with treeline temperatures around -4 C.
Avalanche Summary
Although there are limited recent field observations, there have been enough to suggest there was a natural cycle of size 1-3 wet loose avalanches on sun-exposed slopes during a period of above freezing temperatures between Thursday and Saturday. There was also one report of a size 3 wet slab avalanche in the McBride area. See some photos in recent MIN reports here and here.
You can still expect wet loose avalanches and cornice falls on Tuesday, but they will be less widespread and destructive than they were over the weekend due to the relatively cooler temperatures.
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Snowpack Summary
A surface crust will form overnight and then gradually break down with daytime warming. Dry snow may still be found in high north-facing terrain (above roughly 2300 m). While there have been no recent avalanches on buried weak layers, there are a few layers that could potentially be triggered during periods of with intense warming or a heavy cornice fall. This includes a few crusts buried over the last month as well as a 150 cm deep facet layer from the mid-February cold snap.
Terrain and Travel
- Avoid exposure to steep sun exposed slopes.
- When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.
- Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
- Avoid lingering or regrouping in runout zones.
Problems
Loose Wet
Expect wet loose avalanches to run naturally when steep slopes are exposed to the sun. Activity will start on east-facing slopes in the morning, south-facing slopes throughout the day, and continue on west-facing slopes into the evening.
Aspects: East, South East, South, South West, West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Cornices
Cornices are large and fragile when exposed to the sun. Cornice falls are dangerous on their own and can possibly trigger avalanches on slopes below.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Apr 20th, 2021 4:00PM
