Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Dec 1st, 2018 4:08PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Persistent Slabs.

jsmith, Avalanche Canada

Cariboos.

There is a lot of uncertainty with the reactivity of the buried surface hoar layer down 40-80 cm. Human triggered avalanches are more likely at treeline and sheltered locations in the alpine where this weak layer may exist. New Forecaster blog HERE.

Summary

Confidence

Low - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

Overnight SATURDAY: Partly cloudy / Alpine Low -10 / Light, northeast wind / Freezing level valley bottom.SUNDAY: Mix of sun and cloud / Alpine high -7 / Light, northewest wind / Freezing level valley bottom.MONDAY: Mix of sun and cloud / Alpine high -10 / Light, northwest wind / Freezing level valley bottom.TUESDAY: Sunny / Alpine high -11 / Moderate, northwest wind / Freezing valley bottom.

Avalanche Summary

No avalanches were reported in this region on Friday. However, we currently have very few observations from within this region. Please post your observations to the Mountain Information Network. (MIN)

Snowpack Summary

Recent storm snow amounts range from 40-70 cm. There may be some lingering wind slaps in exposed, alpine terrain, but the primary concern in the snowpack is a weak layer of surface hoar (feathery crystals) and/or sun crust depending on the aspect of the terrain. This layer is below the recent storm snow and is down roughly 30-70 cm. The surface hoar is most pronounced at treeline, but it may also be found in sheltered, north facing alpine areas.At the base of the snowpack is a crust that formed in late October. There have been no reports of reactivity on this layer; however, this layer may be reactive to human triggers in isolated locations such as steep, rocky terrain, with a shallow snowpack. Small avalanches may step-down to this crust resulting in large, destructive avalanchesSnowpack depths decrease dramatically with elevation where rocks, stumps, and open creeks remain significant hazards.We currently have very limited snowpack observations within this region, so it is critical to supplement this information with your own observations.Check out our latest FORECASTER BLOG for more insight into the uncertainty we have with the surface hoar layer in the southern Cariboos.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Be especially cautious with this buried weak layer in the Treeline elevation band, on large open slopes that have a deep enough snowpack to bury all the bushes and make the slope smooth. It may also be present in sheltered, N. facing alpine slopes.

Start in conservative terrain while you gather additional information about the snowpack.Watch for signs of instability such as whumphing, cracking, and evidence of recent avalanches.Use small slopes with no consequence to test for the presence of the buried weak layer.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Dec 2nd, 2018 2:00PM