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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 7th, 2018–Feb 8th, 2018
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Sea To Sky.

Forecast snow and strong winds is driving the avalanche danger. Be alert to changing conditions and increased hazard.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Weather Forecast

Thursday: New snow up to 20 cm overnight Wednesday. Clearing by the afternoon. Ridgetop winds strong from the southwest. Alpine temperatures near -5 with freezing levels 1600 m. Friday: Mix of sun and cloud with alpine temperatures near -10 and freezing levels at valley bottom. Ridgetop winds light from the north. Saturday: Mostly clear with no forecast snow. Alpine temperatures near -10 and ridgetop winds light from the northeast.

Avalanche Summary

On Tuesday, cornice triggers using explosives produced numerous results up to size 2. Cornices remain fragile, give them a wide berth from above and below. Some loose wet avalanches up to size 1.5 were reported from steeper terrain features below 1700 m. Avalanche activity will likely increase on Thursday with forecast snow and strong winds.

Snowpack Summary

New snow up to 10 cm and consistently strong winds from the south east have formed reactive wind slabs in exposed leeward terrain. Below this is a variety of old snow surfaces including wind pressed, scoured or fresh, low density snow in the alpine. Treeline and below treeline a melt-freeze crust exists with moist snow below 1500 m.An average of 170 cm of settled snow now sits on the mid-January crust which generally shows signs of bonding to the overlying snow; however, it has the potential to "wake-up" with a large trigger such as a cornice fall. Cornices are large and fragile and demand respect. Below this, the snowpack is thought to be generally strong and well-settled.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

New storm slabs may be reactive to rider triggers, especially on leeward slopes and behind terrain features where wind loading builds thicker slabs.
Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.Use conservative route selection, stick to moderate angled terrain with low consequence.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Cornices

Large looming cornices exist along ridgelines. They require respect and discipline. Give them an extra wide berth from above and below.
Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.Falling cornices may trigger large avalanches on the slopes below.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5