Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - The snowpack structure is generally well understood. Uncertainty is due to the fact that persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.

A cooling trend lowers freezing levels this week and a weak front brings light snowfall on Monday.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with freezing levels dropping to 500m. Moderate southwest winds. 

MONDAY: Cloudy with light snowfall delivering 5cm over the day. Strong southwest winds. Freezing levels reach 1200m. Alpine high of -2.

TUESDAY: 5-10cm possible snowfall overnight into Tuesday morning. A mix of sun and cloud with light westerly winds. Chance of flurries. Freezing levels reach 1200m. Alpine high of -3. 

WEDNESDAY: A mix of sun and cloudy with light westerly winds. Freezing levels reach 1500m, alpine high of -1. 

A large persistent slab avalanche was reported in the Steeples on Saturday afternoon, on a south facing aspect at 2300 m. This avalanche had wide propagation and ran 2 km in length and is believed to have occurred on the late January persistent weak layer, crowns were estimated at 50 cm deep. 

A recent MIN reported a human triggered size 1 persistent slab avalanche on the same layer on a south aspect at treeline. 

Several natural and human triggered wind slab avalanches to size 2 have been reported this week, on north through east facing slopes. 

Exposed terrain at alpine and treeline elevations hold dense wind effected surfaces with large cornices from westerly winds. Sheltered areas and lower elevations hold a widespread melt freeze crust.

The late January interface is buried 15-40cm deep, and consists of a melt-freeze crust at lower elevations and on solar aspects extending into the alpine. Surface hoar sits above the crust in sheltered areas at treeline and below. 

The widespread January 18 rain crust is now around 40-100cm deep with weak faceted snow above. It is most prominent in the Lizard range. In heavily wind scoured areas at treeline and above this crust may even be found on the surface. 

The snowpack below is well consolidated, with the early-December crust/facet persistent weak layer buried 100-200 cm deep. It is currently considered dormant. We expect this layer to become active later this season, check out the forecaster blog for more information.

• Avalanche hazard may have improved, but be mindful that deep instabilities are still present.
• Look for signs of instability: whumphing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks, and recent avalanches.
• Be careful as you transition into wind affected terrain.