Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack.

Tuesday night: Cloudy with diminishing flurries and a final trace of new snow. Moderate west winds, potentially strong in the alpine. Freezing levels remaining near 1300 metres.

Wednesday: Diminishing cloud, possibly remaining overcast. Light to moderate west winds. Treeline high temperatures around +2 with freezing levels rising to 2700m.

Thursday: Sunny. Light to moderate northwest winds, potentially strong in the alpine. Treeline high temperatures around +1 with freezing levels remaining around 2700 metres.

Friday: Sunny. Light variable winds. Treeline high temperatures around +1 with freezing levels between 2200-2700 metres.

On Saturday in the South Coast Inland region a fatal size 3 (very large) skier triggered avalanche was reported in the Duffey Lake area. It ran on the persistent weak layer from late January described in our snowpack summary. This avalanche was triggered in a upper treeline feature on a northeast aspect and showed significant propagation. Click here to read a more detailed report. 

This is the same layer that was responsible for a skier triggered size 2.5 avalanche last week on Rainbow mountain. Several smaller skier triggered avalanches on this layer were also reported throughout the week. Most of the avalanche activity on this layer has taken place between 1800m and 2000m but it can be found above and below this elevation band. 

We anticipate a significant increase in the likelihood of avalanches on this layer during the warming pattern from Wednesday onward.

Tuesday's flurries should bring 5-10 cm of new snow to the surface by Wednesday morning, burying heavy wind effect and recent wind slab formations resulting from recent south winds that reached up to 120 km/h on Monday morning. The new snow will bury surface crusts at lower elevations and on solar aspects.

Our problematic January layer of facets on crust is now buried down 30 to 70 cm. This layer is widespread between 1800 m and 2000 m, but may be found just above or below this elevation band. It has produced several human and remote triggered avalanches in the past few days. In sheltered terrain at treeline and above, surface hoar may also be found on this layer and it will certainly promote slab reactivity where it exists.

• Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried weak layers.
• Remote triggering is a concern, watch out for adjacent and overhead slopes.
• If triggered loose wet avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
• Minimize overhead exposure; avalanches triggered by warming or cornice fall may be large and destructive.
• Good day to make conservative terrain choices.