Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Nov 26th, 2013 7:50AM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is below threshold. Known problems include Persistent Slabs.

triley, Avalanche Canada

Cariboos.

Early season forecasts are based on limited observations. I have removed the danger rating below treeline to reflect the snowpack at this elevation being below the threshold to produce avalanches.

Summary

Confidence

Poor - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

Overnight and Wednesday: Light Southwest winds and no precipitation. The temperature inversion should break down and below freezing temperatures should return to all elevations.Thursday: Increasing clouds and very light precipitation combined with increasing Southwest winds.Friday: Some very light precipitation and moderate Southwest winds.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported. However, isolated large slab avalanches may still be rider triggered, especially in areas that did not previously avalanche.

Snowpack Summary

Snowpack depths at treeline elevations are about a metre. There is a new layer of surface hoar sitting above the settling recent storm snow. A surface hoar layer may exist 60-120 cm down but seems to be spotty, and drainage specific. Deeper in the snowpack near the base is a melt-freeze / rain crust that formed in October. This is generally found from 80-160 cm down near the base of the snowpack. This layer was reported to be down about 90 cm and "a hard ice crust" on the West slope of the Caribous near Wells Gray Park.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

We would like to find out where this exists, as far as aspects, elevations, and areas of the region. Lets keep this one in the front of our minds as the dry weather pattern breaks down and more load begins to be added to the snowpack.

Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried crust.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

2 - 5

Valid until: Nov 27th, 2013 2:00PM