Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Saturday

A westerly flow dominates the next few days. A number of weather systems are lined up to bring varying amounts of precipitation and wind to the interior regions.Friday: Light snowfall, alpine temperatures -10, winds moderate to strong west and southwestSaturday: Moderate snowfall, alpine temperatures -8, winds strong to extreme west and southwest. Freezing levels possibly rising to 1200m in the morning.Sunday: Moderate snowfall, Alpine temperatures -8, moderate west winds.

There have been no reports of avalanche activity in the past few days. However professional operators in the area are still concerned about the deeply buried October facet/crust layer. Although unlikely, given enough load and/or hitting the sweet spot i.e. thin area, it may be possible to trigger this layer resulting in a large and destructive avalanche. I would also expect to see an increase in natural and rider/skier triggered avalanches as new snow amounts continue to accumulate and the wind speeds pick up over the next 2-3 days.

Up to 25 cm of new snow sits on a variety of snow surfaces ranging from older stiff wind slab, a soft layer of facetted snow and/or surface hoar. 50-80cm below that you may find a buried rain crust that exists below the 1600m elevation band and a surface hoar or facet layer that is down 110-160cm deep. Snowpack depths vary, but in general 185 cm of snow can be found at treeline, with 130 to over 300 cm in the alpine. In some places we're still dealing with a relatively thin snowpack (thanks to a windy early season). The basal facet/crust combo (weak sugary snow above and below a crust) near the ground was active in an avalanche cycle last week. This weakness may be difficult to trigger but if triggered, will result in very large, destructive avalanches.