Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Nov 25th, 2013 8:43AM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is below threshold. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

triley, Avalanche Canada

Cariboos.

Early season forecasts are based on limited observations. I have removed the danger rating below treeline to reflect the snowpack at this elevation being below the threshold to produce avalanches.

Summary

Confidence

Poor - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

Overnight and Tuesday: Above freezing temperatures are expected to continue at higher elevations again on Tuesday. Strong Southwest winds should begin to slow to 30-40 km/hr by Tuesday evening. Expect high clouds with some sunny breaks.Wednesday: Wind speeds should continue to slow and become more Westerly as the temperature inversion breaks down and cooler temperatures move into the Alpine.Thursday: Some light precipitation may make its way into the region during the day as wind speeds are expected to increase to strong from the Southwest.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported. However, isolated large slab avalanches may still be rider triggered, especially in areas that didn't previously avalanche.

Snowpack Summary

Snowpack depths at treeline elevations are about a metre. There is a new layer of surface hoar sitting above the settling recent storm snow. A surface hoar layer may exist 60-120 cm down but seems to be spotty, and drainage specific. Deeper in the snowpack near the base is a melt-freeze / rain crust that formed in October. This is generally found from 80-160 cm down near the base of the snowpack. This layer was reported to be down about 90 cm and "a hard ice crust" on the West slope of the Caribous near Wells Gray Park.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Some wind slabs may persist at higher elevations.

Watch for whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.>Use caution in lee areas in the alpine. Recent wind loading have created wind slabs.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

This crust has been reported from several parts of the region. It may be more widespread on Northerly aspects in the high alpine where there was snow or ice on the ground early in the season.

Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried crust.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

2 - 5

Valid until: Nov 26th, 2013 2:00PM