Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 14th, 2016 7:42AM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Loose Wet.

jlammers, Avalanche Canada

Cariboos.

The avalanche danger may increase if the sun makes an appearance on Monday.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Sunday

Weather Forecast

Sunday night: 5-10cm of new snow / Strong southwest ridgetop winds / Freezing level at about 1400mMonday: Mix of sun and cloud / Moderate ridgetop winds / Freezing level at about 1200mTuesday: 10-20cm of new snow falling mostly in the early morning - easing by mid day / Strong southwest ridgetop winds / Freezing level at about 1400mWednesday: Mix of sun and cloud with isolated flurries / Light southwest ridgetop winds / Freezing level at about 1000m

Avalanche Summary

A size 1.5 wind slab was observed on Saturday; however, observations were limited due to decreased visibility. Increasing southwest winds and light amounts of new snow on Sunday night will spark a new round of wind slab activity in higher elevation lee terrain. Periods of sun on Monday may also promote loose wet avalanche activity in steep sun-exposed terrain, especially in spots where new snow is exposed to solar radiation for the first time.

Snowpack Summary

By Monday morning, generally light amounts of new snow are expected to have been shifted into new wind slabs in lee features at treeline and in the alpine. About 40-60 cm below the surface, you'll likely find a melt freeze crust which exists in most places except for high elevation shaded terrain. Although there seems to be a reasonable bond between the crust and the overlying snow, it could be a potential failure plane, especially if temperatures are warm or solar radiation is strong. Surface hoar buried in early January now lies up to 200cm below the surface and has become unlikely to trigger.

Problems

Wind Slabs

New wind slabs are expected to form on Sunday night in response to light amounts of new snow and wind. Watch for triggering in the lee of ridgecrests at treeline and in the alpine.

Use ridges or ribs to avoid wind loaded terrain.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Loose Wet

Recent storm accumulations may react as a loose wet avalanche in steep, sun-exposed terrain. Be extra cautious if the sun makes an appearance on Monday.

Be cautious of wet sluffing in steep terrain.>Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.>

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Valid until: Feb 15th, 2016 2:00PM