Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 5th, 2014 9:06AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Persistent Slabs and Storm Slabs.

jlammers, Avalanche Canada

Cariboos.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Saturday

Weather Forecast

Thursday: Flurries / Light southwest winds / Freezing level at surfaceFriday: 5-10cm of snow / Moderate to strong southwest winds / Freezing level at surfaceSaturday: 20-30cm of snow / Moderate to strong southwest winds / Freezing level at about 1400m

Avalanche Summary

Natural wind slab avalanches to size 1.5 were reported in response to new snow and wind in recent days.

Snowpack Summary

In general, about 30-40cm of storm snow overlies small surface hoar crystals in sheltered areas, a sun crust on solar aspects and wind slabs in exposed terrain. Ongoing snowfall, wind and warming will add to the reactivity and destructive potential of this developing storm slab. There is ongoing concern for a mix of weak surfaces which were buried on February 10th. This persistent interface lies up to a metre below the surface, and includes weak surface hoar, well developed facets and a mix of hard surfaces which remain widespread at all aspects and elevations. Although natural avalanche activity has tapered-off at this interface, destructive avalanches are still a very real concern with ongoing reports of rider-triggering and sudden snowpack test result results. For the most part, the mid and lower snowpack are strong and well consolidated. Weak basal facets exist in some areas, but triggering has now become unlikely.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

A deep, dense slab overlies a variety of weak layers and may still be touchy in some areas. Triggering this weakness would have nasty consequences, so be patient and don't be tempted into large, unsupported terrain.

Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried weak layers.>Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

2 - 5

Storm Slabs

Up to 40cm of recent storm snow overlies a number of potentially weak surfaces. Watch for increased reactivity in wind exposed terrain.

Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Be alert to conditions that change with elevation.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Valid until: Mar 6th, 2014 2:00PM