Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 13th, 2017 3:55PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Loose Wet, Storm Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

mgrist, Avalanche Canada

South Coast Inland.

Avoid steep sun-exposed slopes during the heat of the day. Don't let your guard down with warm temperatures and sunny skies.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Change is coming on Tuesday evening and then wet on Wednesday into Thursday. TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with wet snow or rain beginning in the evening / High temperatures to +6 Celsius / Moderate southwesterly winds / Freezing level around 2600 m. WEDNESDAY: Rain (20-40mm in the South ; 40-60mm in the North) or wet snow / Moderate southerly winds / Freezing level around 2400m. THURSDAY: Wet flurries changing to snow (10-25cm) / Moderate southwesterly winds / Freezing level around 1500 m.

Avalanche Summary

On Sunday there were reports of widespread whoompfs near treeline on Northerly aspects in the Duffey Lake zone. Compression tests gave sudden results down 65cm on surface hoar. Click here to see this MIN post. We had reports of a remote-triggered Size 1.5 on a northwest aspect near 1750m just outside the Manning ski area on Saturday - skiers traveling along the ridgeline triggered an adjacent slope. Click here to see this MIN post.

Snowpack Summary

Last week we had 60-80cm storm snow (lower amounts in the north), which fell with moderate to strong southwest winds. The main concern right now in the Duffey zone is lingering storm and wind slabs, which have given moderate resistant and sudden results (down 30-40cm and also 60-70cm) in recent snowpack tests (see above for more information). On the Coquihalla, a temperature crust can be found up to 1800m and significant wind effect occurred at upper treeline and alpine elevations.The mid-December facets down 130-160 cm still remain a concern especially in shallower snowpack areas in the Duffey, Hurley and/ or South Chilcotins. These deeper weaknesses warrant monitoring, especially with rapid warming next week. In southern areas (Coquihalla), the lower snowpack is reportedly well settled (stronger), than it is to the north.

Problems

Loose Wet

Just because it's mild out doesn't mean you can get complacent: Avoid steep sun-exposed slopes during the heat of the day.

Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Storm Slabs

The warming trend and strong winds from the past storm packed warmer heavy snow on-top of colder snow, making storm and wind slab avalanches much more likely.

Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline. Recent storm snow has formed touchy slabs.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

This problem is more prevalent in the far north areas of the region and is a low likelihood, high consequence scenario that will need to be monitored as snow loads or temperatures increase.

Be cautious in shallow snowpack areas where triggering is more likely.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

2 - 4

Valid until: Feb 14th, 2017 2:00PM