Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 15th, 2012 8:42AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Wind Slabs, Loose Dry and Cornices.

ghelgeson, Avalanche Canada

Cariboos.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Arctic air begins to influence the region Monday. No significant precipitation is expected Monday, although you may run into the occasional flurry. Temps are low; expect a daytime High of -14 & an overnight Low of -27. Winds at ridge top will be Moderate out of the SW. TL winds are expected to be light out of the E. This pattern looks to persist through at least Wednesday evening.

Avalanche Summary

Sluffing is occurring in steep terrain, but no recent avalanche activity has been reported.

Snowpack Summary

The region has received as much as 30 cm in the last 48 hours, 50 cm in the last 7 days. Much of this snow has been accompanied by strong variable winds which has created a wind-slab problem in the alpine and treeline elevation bands. Cool dry Arctic air is creeping into the valleys in the far north portion of the region. This air mass will continue to work its way south which will tighten the snowpack up a bit, drop temperatures & introduce reverse winds at and below treeline.

Problems

Wind Slabs

20 - 30 cm of light density snow has fallen in the last 48 hours accompanied by well behaved (low speed) winds. Watch for signs of windslab development anytime the wind kicks up.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

2 - 4

Loose Dry

Recent light density snow accompanied by cool temperatures have made for some active sluffing in wind sheltered locations. Be sure your sluff doesn't push you off your intended line & into an area with higher consequence.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Cornices

Last week's warm temperatures and strong winds caused rapid cornice growth which may not be well supported. Try to reduce your exposure beneath these large unstable masses of heavy snow.

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1 - 5

Valid until: Jan 16th, 2012 8:00AM