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Avalanche Forecast

Dec 18th, 2016–Dec 19th, 2016
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Cariboos.

Heavy storm snow and strong winds are the driving the danger ratings to HIGH. Its a good time to stick to simple and non-avalanche terrain.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Weather Forecast

A strong westerly flow is driving a series of Pacific frontal systems through the Interior regions tonight through the week. Each system will be a bit stronger bringing moderate to heavy snow amounts and strong winds.Sunday Night: Snow 10-20 cm with alpine temperatures -12 and southwest winds 50-80 km/hMonday: Snow 5-10 cm with alpine temperatures near -12 and ridgetop winds southwest 40-70 km/h.Tuesday: Snow 5-10 cm with alpine temperatures -9 and ridgetop winds light from the southwest.Wednesday: Light flurries with alpine temperatures -9 and ridgetop winds 30 gusting to 60 km/h.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches reported on Sunday. Forecast strong winds and heavy snow will continue to build touchy storm slabs on Monday.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 20 cm of new storm snow sits above a plethora of old snow surfaces including stiff wind affected snow, faceted (sugary) crystals and surface hoar crystals that formed in locations sheltered from the wind. The new storm snow will likely have a poor bond to these. The mid-November crust is buried down 70-150 cm and produces variable results in snowpack tests. Moderate results may be more likely in shallower snowpack areas, and deeper snowpack areas may be more likely to show no results on this layer. Tracking and monitoring this potentially weak interface is crucial especially as we move forward into this snowy period where the snowpack will see more load.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

New storm slabs will be building through the day. Watch for conditions that change with aspect and elevation, especially on wind loaded slopes and terrain features.
Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2