Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Apr 13th, 2014 9:19AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Loose Wet, Wind Slabs and Deep Persistent Slabs.

mbender, Avalanche Canada

Cariboos.

Summary

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

Monday: Mix of sun and cloud. Light west winds. Freezing level 2200m.Tuesday: Cloudy with scattered flurries. Light westerly winds. Freezing level 1500m.Wednesday: Cloudy with flurries. Light westerly winds. Freezing level 1800m.

Avalanche Summary

Recent reports indicate numerous natural avalanches running to size 2.5 on southerly aspects in the alpine. A size 3 natural cornice triggered avalanche was also reported from a east aspect in the alpine.

Snowpack Summary

Mainly sunny weather and the freezing level reaching up to 2300m has created moist snow and/or a crust on all aspects and elevations except for high elevation north-facing terrain. This has helped to settle out last week's storm snow accumulations. Moderate west and northwest winds have redistributed what little dry snow still exists at upper elevations into wind slabs immediately lee of ridge crest. Three persistent weak layers exist in the highly variable snowpack of the Cariboos:-The mid-March sun crust/surface hoar layer down 50-80cm still has potential for human-triggering in isolated areas. -The early-March crust/facet/surface hoar layer down around 80-120cm has become less susceptible to human triggering, but still has the capacity to produce large avalanches.-The mid-February crust/facet/surface hoar combo is typically down 150 - 200cm. Direct triggering of this layer has become unlikely, however, cornice fall, a smaller avalanche in motion or prolonged warming may wake this layer up, which would result in very large and destructive avalanches.

Problems

Loose Wet

Expect to see an increase in avalanche activity on solar aspects as the sun stays out for extended periods of time.

Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.>Cornices become weak with daytime heating, so travel early on exposed slopes.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 4

Wind Slabs

Storm and wind slabs are most sensitive to human triggering immediately lee of ridge crest and mid slope features like ribs.

Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Avoid wind loaded features, especially slopes immediately lee of ridge crest and mid slope roll overs.>Assess start zones carefully and use safe travel techniques.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Deep Persistent Slabs

The potential for very large deep slab avalanches needs to remain on your radar. Cornice fall, strong solar, warming temperatures or a surface avalanche in motion could act as triggers.

Be aware of the potential for very large, deep and destructive avalanches due to the presence of deeply buried persistent weak layers.>Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

4 - 8

Valid until: Apr 14th, 2014 2:00PM