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Avalanche Forecast

Apr 5th, 2015–Apr 6th, 2015
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Cariboos.

Warmth remains the primary driver of avalanche hazard as we shift into a more spring like pattern. Minimize your exposure to large slopes if the snowpack is becoming moist or wet.

Confidence

Fair

Weather Forecast

MONDAY: Freezing level starting at valley bottom, rising to 1500m.  Light variable winds at all elevations.  No significant precipitation expected.  Mostly clear skies.TUESDAY: Freezing level starting at valley bottom, rising to 1700m.  Light SW winds at all elevations.  No significant precipitation expected.  Mostly clear skies.WEDNESDAY: Freezing level starting at 1200m, rising to 2100m.  Light W/NW winds at all elevations.  No significant precipitation expected.  Clear skies.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche activity reported from Saturday.  In the days leading up to the weekend a handful of large avalanches were reported, most were from north aspects, with the odd event on other aspects. A number of cornice failures were also observed.

Snowpack Summary

Recent squally snow showers have brought 15-30 cm of snow, which has been shifted into wind slabs. This new snow sits above a crust which varies in thickness with elevation. Cornices are large and vulnerable.  Two crust/facet interfaces, formed in March and February, sit about 80-120 cm deep in the snowpack. These weaknesses are becoming more stubborn to trigger, but still react in snowpack tests indicating they still have the potential for wide propagation resulting in very large avalanches if triggered. Basal facets are currently dormant but may wake up with sustained warm temperatures.

Avalanche Problems

Loose Wet

Continued sun on new snow is likely to keep a cycle of loose wet avalanches going, especially on steep solar aspects.
Time your travel to avoid being on or underneath slopes that are getting cooked.>Minimize exposure to sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Cornices

Cornices are large and may be fragile.  Falling cornices may trigger wind slabs on slopes below.
Use caution in lee areas in the alpine. Recent wind loading has created wind slabs.>Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

Buried persistent weak layers may still be reactive to human-triggering and large avalanches remain possible. Smaller avalanches in motion or a cornice failure could step down to one of these deeper layers.
Dig down to find and test weak layers before committing to a big line.>Caution around convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.>Choose conservative lines.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 3 - 6