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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 21st, 2017–Feb 22nd, 2017
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Coast Inland.

Watch for lingering wind slabs in high north facing terrain and loose sluffing on steep sun exposed slopes.

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

A mix of sun and cloud is expected on Wednesday with the possibility of lingering flurries. Alpine wind is forecast to be light to moderate from the west and treeline temperatures are expected to be around -10C. Similar conditions are expected for Thursday and Friday with mostly sunny skies, light alpine wind, and treeline temperatures remaining around -10C.

Avalanche Summary

On Monday, natural sluffing was observed from steep sun exposed slopes. A small natural cornice fall was also observed from a northeast aspect at 2150 m. No new avalanches were reported on Saturday or Sunday. On Friday, a size 3 persistent slab avalanche was observed up the Hurley at treeline elevation and likely failed on the weak layer from early February.On Wednesday, lingering wind slabs are the main concern. Look for these in immediately leeward features on northerly aspects in exposed terrain. Sluffing from steep sun exposed slopes is also possible during the heat of the afternoon.

Snowpack Summary

At higher elevations, 10-30 cm of recent snow overlies the widespread mid-February crust layer. Recent reports suggest this snow is well bonded to the crust. Wind slabs and cornices were previously being reported in high north facing alpine terrain aspects but these are expected to have gained considerable strength over the past couple days of colder temperatures. In the north of the region, a facet/surface hoar layer from early February down 60-100 cm was recently reactive in snowpack tests but would be very difficult to trigger without something heavy like a cornice fall or smaller avalanche stepping down. In the south of the region, the mid and lower snowpack are well settled and strong.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Reactive wind slabs may still be lingering in high north facing terrain. Large lingering cornices may also still be weak and could fail under the weight of a person.
Avoid areas where the surface snow feels stiff or slabby.Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Loose Dry

It may be possible to trigger loose sluffs on steep sun exposed slopes during the heat of the afternoon.
Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain.Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2