Avalanche Forecast

Poor - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

A strong west to southwesterly flow continues to drive a series of moist systems across the interior regions. The next frontal system will cross the interior on Sunday night and most of Monday resulting in more precipitation and wind. There is some model disagreement regarding the track of this system with one model suggesting the storm may track to the south and not affect the Cariboos. The second weaker system is expected Tuesday overnight. Wednesday is expected to be mainly dry.Sun. Night/Monday: Snowfall 4-12cm, freezing level rising to 1000m in the afternoon, ridgetop winds 30-50km/h SW easing in the afternoon.Tuesday: Snowfall midday and overnight 5-10cm, freezing level rising to 1000m in the afternoon, ridgetop winds 30-50km/h SW.Wednesday: Mostly dry, cloudy with sunny breaks, freezing levels drop to valley bottom, ridgetop winds 30-50km/h W-NW.

Recent observations are limited but a widespread natural avalanche cycle appears to have been occurring across the forecast area over the last few days with natural and human-triggered avalanches up to size 2.  These avalanches are occurring on all aspects and elevation bands.  The North Columbia has been reporting widespread activity up to size 3.5 and larger avalanches are expected for the Cariboo region as more snow accumulates.

Snowfall amounts have varied across the forecast region, but up to 100cm+ of storm snow is settling into a cohesive slab which is now typically 50-80cm thick. This slab is sitting on the weak Feb 9 interface which consists of multiple layers of surface hoar, faceted snow, and/or crusts from the past few weeks of cold clear weather. Reports indicate very easy snowpack tests results and widespread large destructive avalanche activity. Due to the persistent nature of these buried weaknesses, touchy conditions are likely to exist for some time.Strong ridge top winds have created wind slabs on leeward features at treeline and above. These wind slabs are the primary concern for the near future and strong-to-extreme forecast winds over the next few days are expected to add to this problem.For the most part, the mid and lower snowpack are strong and well consolidated. However, weak basal facets are likely to exist in some areas but triggering has now become unlikely.