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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 5th, 2024–Dec 6th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Vancouver Island, East Island, North Island, South Island, West Island.

Incoming storm on the radar !

Rain, elevated freezing levels, and extreme wind will impact the region.

Avalanche danger will increase as the storm progresses.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Warming signs of instability, such as pinwheels, tree bombs, and heavy wet snow, were observed earlier this week.

Our field team visited Elk Mountain on Wednesday. Here is their MIN report.

If you are going out in the backcountry, please consider filling out a Mountain Information Network (MIN) report.

Snowpack Summary

A weak melt-freeze crust may have formed at the snow surface with overnight cooling. Continued mild temperature has transformed the top 30 cm of the snowpack into moist snow.

Down 45 to 60 cm from the surface, a thick melt-freeze crust is found. At mid-elevations, the entire snowpack is moist to the ground.

Snow depths at treeline vary across the region. Currently, 250 cm is reported near Mt. Washington, 180 cm near Elk Mountain, and 150 cm near Mt Cain.

Weather Summary

Thursday Night

Cloudy. 30 to 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature +4°C. Freezing level 2000 m.

Friday

Cloudy with 15 to 20 mm of rain. 70 to 90 km/h south ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature +6°C. Freezing level 2500 to 3000 m.

Saturday

Cloudy with 30 to 50 mm of heavy rain. 70 to 90 km/h south ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature +2°C. Freezing level 2500 m lowering to 1000 m.

Sunday

Cloudy with 10 to 15 cm of wet snow at upper elevations. 40 to 60 km/h northwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 0°C. Freezing level 1000 to 1500 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be alert to rapidly changing conditions.
  • A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling, and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.
  • Carefully manage your exposure to overhead hazards.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.