Small windslabs may be reactive at higher elevation
A loose wet cycle is possible at lower elevations if it really warms up.
A good day out could be enjoyed if you are prepared for the conditions and head for terrain sheltered from the gale westerlies.
Gale force wind from the west will continue to redistribute snow onto eastern slopes. While most of this snow will just blow away, small windslabs could continue to build in sheltered places.
Any recently wind loaded slopes may be able to be trigged by a single person's weight. Even a small avalanche may be consequential with rocks or cliffs in the runout.
A solid freeze is expected overnight. Combined with a dry W wind, this should keep the loose wet danger away.
However, a warm day is forecast, and it's possible that enough heat will get through to cause a problem.
Take care to observe the state of the snow and be prepared to avoid steep slopes and runouts if the snowpack loses strength.
No recent avalanches have been reported in the area.
If you see any activity on the Two Thumb Range, please make a public observation. It really helps us to produce accurate forecasts.
South westerly winds have redistributed what little transportable snow that was left after severe gale NW winds that have stripped snow earlier this week. This wind has left old crusts and rock exposed on North and West facing slopes.
Below about 1800-2000m the snowpack has become wet and gone through overnight freezes.
Snow depths in the south are about 70cm, tapering to about about 50cm mid range and 40cm in the north.
The snowpack north of Stag Saddle is not well understood, with no direct observations.
Fine with morning frosts and high cloud.
Wind at 1000 metres
Westerly 45 km/h, rising to gale 65 km/h before dawn, but rising to gale 85 km/h in exposed places for a time in the afternoon.
Wind at 2000 metres
Westerly gale 65 km/h but gale 85 km/h about the Mackenzie Basin until the evening.
Freezing level
2200 metres, lowering to 1800 metres at night.
Issued: 1:35pm Fri 17 Jul
The wind has stripped the soft snow back to exposed crusts.
Below 2000m, the snowpack has gone through melt freeze cycles, so any overnight freeze will form a slick crust.
Expect high sliding danger with lots of rocks in the runouts.
Iceaxe and crampons are recommended.
High
New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)
