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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 17th, 2019–Mar 18th, 2019

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead.

Sunshine and warmth may feel good to us, but it doesn't help the snow. It's a good time to step aside, watch from afar, and let the mountains shed some of their winter coat. Riding will be better, or at least safer, when it cools off in a few days.

Confidence

Moderate -

Weather Forecast

Significant warming in the forecast and next week looks very warm with freezing level above the summits. Don't let overnight cooling at low elevations (temperature inversion) fool you; very little cooling is expected at higher elevation.SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear & dry. Freezing level around 2000m. Light variable wind.MONDAY: Sunny and dry. Freezing level around 2500m, no real overnight re-freeze expected at treeline elevations. Light variable wind.TUESDAY: Just like Monday but freezing level approaching 3000m.WEDNESDAY: Just like Monday and Tuesday but freezing level exceeding 3000m.

Avalanche Summary

On Thursday, a group of riders remotely triggered a size 1.5 persistent slab from 100 metres away. See the MIN report for more details. I view this as an important piece of data when considering the effect of forecast strong sunshine and warming.Saturday's reports are of significant warming but only small loose wet avalanches. Neighbouring regions (for example Kananaskis Country) where the snowpack is thinner and weaker entered a natural avalanche cycle involving most aspects, most elevations, and most snowpack layers. IMHO this foretells the story of what's soon coming to a mountain range near you!

Snowpack Summary

Upper snowpack: Getting warm and moist during the day, maybe forming ephemeral crusts overnight. On sunny aspects there may be buried crusts serving as sliding layers. On lee slopes there may be buried hard layers of wind effected snow (buried wind slabs). There might even be some good old soft snow (powder hiding out on high elevation shadier places). Mid pack: The mid-snowpack consists of sugary faceted grains (facets) of different hardness. Two older layers of surface hoar still exist down 55-80 and down 95-150 around 1600-1900m. See Avalanche Activity section below for why this is relevant!Lower pack: Was reportedly strong in deep snowpack regions, but I have doubts in shallower areas where the long February cold weakened even the deep layers. Now add a bunch of heat and sun ... the snowpack won't be feelin' the love. Forecasting how many sunny days and warm nights it's going to take to wake up deeper layers is tough; however, I can say with confidence it's a good time to stand aside, watch from afar, let the mountains shed their coat, and come back to the game when things return to normal after the temperatures cool.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.