Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Mar 15th, 2024 1:45PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Persistent Slabs, Cornices and Deep Persistent Slabs.
mkoppang,
Avalanche Canada
Dramatic warm up is forecast to occur this weekend with high freezing levels and warm temperatures. Warm temperatures will likely trigger another round of natural avalanche activity with the potential for full path avalanches. Good time to avoid avalanche terrain.
Summary
Confidence
Avalanche Summary
Numerous loose wet avalanches up to sz 1 from steep rocky terrain as high as 3000m were observed on Friday. A few wet slabs at treeline and below were also observed failing at ground likely triggered by the loose wet from above.
Snowpack Summary
Warm temperatures are settling the upper snowpack and creating moist snow up to 2200m on all aspects and likely over 3000m on solar aspects. This new snow is settling and in some places overloading the weak layers triggering natural avalanches that are either failing on the ground or on the February crust down 70-100cm. Polar aspects in the alpine may still hold dry snow but windslabs should be expected if you are headed into this area. With our generally weak snowpack and the big pulse of heat that is coming this weekend, its a good time to avoid avalanche terrain in general. Extensive settlements were heard on Friday while travelling in any open areas indicating the snowpack is highly susceptible to human triggering. Avalanches have the potential to go full path reach all the way down to the valley floors. Cornices are large and looming over many features at this time of year and with the heat, they may act as a big trigger on underlying slopes.
GHOST FORECAST AREA
The Ghost area has more snow than usual. With this warming trend, pay close attention of what is above you. Wet loose avalanches and cornice failures are possible in this forecast region. Ice climbers should choose routes appropriately.
Weather Summary
Freezing levels are forecast to again climb to 2500m on Saturday with a mix of sun and cloud. Winds will be light and its hard to say how good the quality of the freeze will be overnight. Overall, The next few days will be a good time to avoid avalanche terrain.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Cornices become weak with daytime heating or solar exposure.
- Extra caution for areas experiencing rapidly warming temperatures for the first time.
- Remote triggering is a concern, watch out for adjacent and overhead slopes.
- Potential for wide propagation exists, fresh slabs may rest on surface hoar, facets and/or crust.
- If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
Problems
Persistent Slabs
This layer is breaking down at the upper limits. At 2250m it is much weaker than last week.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Cornices
Watch for cornices collapsing with the incoming heat triggering avalanche on the underlying slopes.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Deep Persistent Slabs
Avalanches may step down to the weaker deep basal layers. If this layer is involved, expect full path avalanches.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Mar 18th, 2024 3:00PM
