Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 2nd, 2017 3:52PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

Avalanche Canada triley, Avalanche Canada

Expect change to be slow due to the cold temperatures. Wind slabs in motion may step down to deeply buried weak layers resulting in large avalanches.

Summary

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

Some thin high cloud overnight with moderate easterly winds. Expect lows around -20. Clear and cold on Tuesday with light northerly winds and alpine highs around -15. Mostly clear on Wednesday with moderate-strong northeast winds. Cloud developing on Thursday with moderate westerly winds and a trace of snow.

Avalanche Summary

On Sunday, pockets of wind slab released naturally and from explosives control up to size 1.5 on northeast aspects in the alpine. The most interesting avalanche recently was a size 2.5 slab avalanche triggered on an east facing slope on Mt Fernie. The slab failed on a cross-loaded treeline feature and ran full path. Although the exact failure plane is unknown, it points to the potentially touchy conditions on wind-affected features. A few days ago, a large (size 2) human-triggered avalanche was reported near Corbin in the Flathead Range in an area where wind had firmed up the surface snow and where sugary facets were present lower down in the snowpack. Evidence of a natural size 2.5 persistent slab avalanche was also noted on a treeline feature in the same area.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 10 cm of snow was added to the snowpack Saturday night and Sunday. That means around 60cm of storm snow from last week sits above old hard wind slabs and spotty surface hoar. The cold weather in early December left several layers of weak surface hoar and facets buried 60-80 cm deep. These layers are more reactive in areas where the overlying slab gained cohesion with wind or settlement. A thick rain crust from mid-November is near the bottom of the snowpack and remains well bonded to the surrounding snow.

Problems

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs
Northeast winds may redistribute the new snow into reactive wind slabs in exposed lee terrain. In shallow snowpack areas, these slabs could pull out to deeper layers below, increasing the size of an avalanche.
If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.Avoid travelling in areas that have been reverse loaded by winds.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Persistent Slabs
Where denser snow overlies weak, sugary snow, there is the potential to trigger large, dangerous avalanches. Dig down and test for weak layers before committing to any steep slope.
Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.Danger spots are where denser snow overlies weak, sugary snow below.Watch for whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

2 - 3

Valid until: Jan 3rd, 2017 2:00PM

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