Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain on Tuesday

Overnight and Monday: A weak ridge of High pressure is forecast to bring moderate gusty NW winds overnight that should decrease during the day as the flow shifts more Westerly. The Westerly winds are expected to increase to moderate Monday evening. Very light precipitation overnight and none forecast for Monday.Tuesday: A cold front is expected to move down the coast from the North sometime Monday night, bringing 8-12 mm of precipitation that should fall as snow at all elevations. Expect SE 20-30 km/hr at ridge tops.Wednesday: There is another system forecast to move onto the coast in the afternoon. Timing, precipitation amounts, and wind values are uncertain at this time.

Some thin wind slabs were ski cut up to size 1.0 that were 20 cms deep. Explosives control released a size 2.0 in steep un-skiable terrain.

Some exposed areas have developed a thin stiff wind slab in the alpine. Sheltered areas have 20-30 cms of light unconsolidated snow above a gradually stiffening snowpack. Snowpack tests have not been showing any consistent results in the storm snow. Foot penetration may still be up to 70 cms as the wind slab is not able to carry the weight of a person without skis. Professionals are concerned about the early November rain crust. If this deep persistent weak layer (DPWL) becomes reactive, the consequences will be very large destructive avalanches. The crust may be buried between 100-200 cms depending on the total depth of the snowpack in your area. The crust may be a bigger problem where it has a layer of facetted crystals above, rather than where it is like a laminated sandwich of crusts and facets. If that sounds too technical for you, then the take home is that this is not an easy problem to gauge when or where it might wake up.