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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 15th, 2021–Mar 16th, 2021
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Jasper.

Watch out for rising temperatures and solar heating which can increase the avalanche danger. Start early and finish early.

Weather Forecast

Tuesday: Sunny with cloudy periods. Precipitation: Nil. Alpine temperature: High -3 C. Light ridge wind. Freezing level: 1900m.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud. Precipitation: Nil. Alpine temperature: Low -8 C, High -4 C. Ridge wind southwest: 10-25 km/h. Freezing level: 1800m.

Snowpack Summary

Sunny skies and warm temperatures have created crusts and moist snow on all aspects at tree line and below and into the alpine on solar aspects. There is widespread wind scouring to rock in exposed alpine features. The middle of the snowpack is supportive in deep areas but weak in shallow spots.

Avalanche Summary

Several natural wet avalanches occurred in the region on Sunday and Monday. A notable large slab avalanche occurred on a southerly aspect high on Mt. Wilson. Natural and explosive triggered avalanches stepping down to the February persistent weak layer (down 60cm) resulted in two size 2 avalanches at Marmot Basin.

Confidence

Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Loose Wet

Watch out for solar heating and daytime warming to trigger avalanches especially from steep rocky terrain.

  • Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.

Aspects: South, South West, West.

Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 1.5

Persistent Slabs

Weak  facets buried on Feb 20th. It is prudent to keep this on your radar with warmer temperatures as reactivity may increase. Cornices will have the potential to fail and trigger slabs below.

  • Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could trigger slabs.
  • If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Deep Persistent Slabs

Caution in thin facetted snowpack areas where triggering is more likely. This is a low probability but high consequence problem.

  • Avoid shallow snowpack areas where triggering is more likely.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3