Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the fact that persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.

MONDAY NIGHT - Mainly cloudy with a few flurries, 5 cm / southwest wind 30-60 km/h / alpine low temperature near -6

TUESDAY - Flurries, 5-15 cm, with another 10-20 cm possible overnight / southwest wind 40-80 km/h / alpine high temperature near -2 / freezing level 1500 m

WEDNESDAY - Mainly cloudy with a few flurries, 5 cm / west wind 60-80 km/h / alpine high temperature near -2 / freezing level 2000 m

THURSDAY - A mix of sun and cloud / northwest wind 10-20 km/h / alpine high temperature near -10

Fresh wind slabs are expected to form during the day on Tuesday may be reactive to human triggers at upper elevations.

A large (size three) cornice triggered persistent slab avalanche was reported on a large south-facing alpine slope in the Crowsnest Pass area on Thursday. This avalanche failed on weak facets overlying a hard crust deep in the snowpack and is an example of the "low probability; high consequence" scenario that persistent slab problems often create. View the MIN report HERE.

Fresh snow and moderate to strong southwest wind may create fresh and reactive wind slabs in open areas.

The lower snowpack consists of decomposing crusts and weak, faceted snow. In the Elk Valley, a decomposing surface hoar layer can be found around one of these crusts 50-100 cm below the surface. Avalanche activity on these layers in the lower snowpack has been sporadic, mostly triggered by large loads such as a wind slab avalanche, or a cornice fall. These deeper weak layers are most likely to be human triggered on steep, rocky slopes with a shallow or thin to thick snowpack.

• Be carefull around freshly wind loaded features.
• If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
• Avoid exposure to slopes that have cornices overhead.
• Avoid steep, rocky, and wind effected areas where triggering slabs is more likely.