Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Jan 16th, 2022 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Storm Slabs.
ahanna,
Avalanche Canada
New snow and wind are forming touchy storm slabs. If you see more than 25 cm of new snow, treat avalanche danger as HIGH at all elevations and stick to simple terrain.
Summary
Confidence
Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the track & intensity of the incoming weather system.
Weather Forecast
Sunday night: Snowfall 5-15 cm. Strong SW wind. Treeline high around -1 C. Freezing levels up to 1700 m in the northwest of the region and around 1000 m elsewhere.
Monday: Snowfall 5-15 cm. Strong SW wind. Treeline high around -1 C. Freezing levels 1300 m, dropping rapidly to valley bottom in the late afternoon.
Tuesday: Sunny. Light variable wind. Treeline high around -8 °C. Freezing level valley bottom.
Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud. Moderate southerly wind. Treeline high around -8 °C. Freezing level valley bottom.
Avalanche Summary
On Saturday, size 1 wind slabs were reactive to ski cuts. A couple of large persistent slab avalanches size 2-2.5 were observed near Blue River, suspected to have run naturally during the warm storm Thursday, during a natural avalanche cycle with storm slabs up to size 3.
Snowpack Summary
New snow falls over 20-30 cm of well settled snow from the previous storm, possibly a layer of surface hoar crystals in sheltered areas, and/or a thin breakable crust which was observed as high as 1850 m.
A layer of facets from early January may be found down 40-80 cm but has not been reactive recently.
South of Blue River, the early December crust/facet interface is now typically down 80-150 cm, but as deep as 200 cm in wind loaded terrain. It consists of faceted grains above a decomposing crust formed by the Atmospheric River rain event at the end of November. Natural avalanches ran on this layer as recently as Thursday during the warm storm. Heavy triggers like natural cornice falls and storm slab avalanches may still have potential to step down to this layer resulting in very large avalanches. This snowpack feature is not found north of Valemount.
Terrain and Travel
- Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
- Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind or rain.
- Dial back your terrain choices if you are seeing more than 25cm of new snow.
- Travel in alpine terrain is not recommended.
Problems
Storm Slabs
New snow and wind are forming fresh storm slabs. Storm slabs are most likely to be reactive in wind loaded features and where the new snow sits over surface hoar or a crust.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Jan 17th, 2022 4:00PM
